President Trump has caused a stir in foreign policy circles with his desire to control, if not annex, Greenland. It is understandable that the average American may not be aware of the importance of Greenland, as it is not a body of land that is mentioned often in history. But the seemingly unimportant landmass at the top of the Mercator projection of the world has hidden strategic value.
World War II
Greenland was an important island in World War II. As the Battle of the Atlantic raged between Allied Convoys and German U-boats, both sides found Greenland ideally suited for weather, radar, radio and search-and-rescue bases. It was also rich in cryolite, a key component in processing aluminium for aircraft.
After Denmark was occupied by the Nazis, Greenland was forced to act as an independent sovereign nation. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt moved quickly to secure Greenland as a base, and in April 1941 Greenland accepted a position as a de facto US protectorate.
In 1942, the Germans set up weather stations in Greenland. Meterological intelligence was very important, as it affected the scheduling of convoys and the possibility of air operations. The US military, in cooperation with the “Army of Greenland” (which was little more than a coastal patrol force) ejected the Germans. When Denmark was liberated in May 1945, Greenland returned to Danish control and the agreement with FDR was ratified.
Northwest Passage
The search for the Northwest Passage, a sea route between Atlantic and Pacific that doesn’t go around Cape Horn in South America or the Panama Canal in Central America, has happening since the 15th century. A navigable sea route between Atlantic and Pacific that passes near the North Pole would be of immense commercial value for shipping between Asia and Europe, as well as the US.
For a long time, the Northwest Passage was not a practical commerical shipping route due to the year-round ice. However, with global warming, much of this problem is going away such that there are 4-6 weeks of commercially viable shipping time in the Northwest Passage. Approximately $500 million in shipping transited the Northwest Passage in 15 runs last year.
Whether or not climate change is happening, or is man-made is not at issue: the ice of the Arctic is receding, which will open the Northwest Passage to increased commerical shipping over the next few decades. Greenland is well placed geographically to control access to the Northwest Passage, which Canada claims is part of their sovereign territory. The US disputes this, saying the Northwest Passage are international waters.
Rare Earths
Greenland has an abundance of rare earths that are required for modern technology to be made. Computer chips made from these rare earths power everything from your cellphone to the advanced avionics of an F-35 fighter jet. Greenland has 1.5 million in proven reserves (vs 1.9 million tons for the US) and as much as 36 million tons in potential rare earths. There is also one of the largest Uranium deposits in the world.
China currently accounts for 70% of all rare earth mining, and over 90% of rare earth processing. If the US can bring Greenland into its orbit with a mutual defense pact with trade and security guarantees, it will help us decouple our rare earths dependency on China, develop American infrastructure by creating jobs, and enhance American security vs China.
The GUIK Gap
The Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap is the only way for ships to exit the Arctic sea area other than the Bering Strait. During the Cold War, NATO had extensive listening equipment there to to detect Soviet submarines based in the Kola Peninsula. These Soviet submarines purpose was to cut off Europe from American support in the event of a Communist advance on Western Europe.
In 2026, submarines are far quieter and undersea data cables traverse the gap. These data cables carry 97% of trans-Atlantic internet traffic. The US Navy and NATO allies must protect these cables from destruction or attempts to “tap” them for intelligence purposes.
What Next?
It is unlikely that President Trump will outright annex Greenland or take it over by direct military action. Trump’s rhetoric in this area is part of his usual negotiation strategy: say something outrageous, then become reasonable when you back down and present reasonable demands.
It is more likely that Greenland will be formally or informally brought into the US’s sphere of influence with a mutual-defense pact, permission to build some more military bases, and “most favored nation” trade status. Such an agreement would accomplish US strategic interest in the region without the political mess of outright annexation or military takeover.
