When I woke up on Saturday morning, I was shocked to learn that the US had toppled the Maduro Regime and was planning to take over the country. Being a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, two thoughts entered my mind as I was waking up and having my first black coffee of the day.
- “Is this going to be a 20-year disaster that will waste trillions, kill hundreds of thousands, and ends up a net loss for the US?”
- Does Trump have an actual plan to make this work out so we can use Venezuelan Oil to prevent war with China and end the War in Ukraine?
To the first question, I can say the answer is no, or it is very likely to be no. I will concede: on the surface, there are some similarities between Venezuela in 2026 and Iraq in 2003. In both cases, we had an illegitimate regime ruling an oil-rich country that was unfriendly to the US. However, the similarities end there, and when all facts are taken into account, these are superficial to the very different situation between Venezuela in 2025 and Iraq in 2003.
Killing Americans With Drugs
Unlike Iraq before the US invasion, Venezulea was a key exporter of illegal drugs to the US, primarily cocaine. Cocaine was involved in 28% of overdose deaths in 2023. Maduro was at the head of a narco-empire that was a key logistical hub in shipping illegal drugs to the US mainland. In 2023, 105,000 Americans died of drug overdose. To put that number in prespective, 58,000 American Servicemen were killed during the seven years of the Vietnam War. Every year, we lose far in excess of the Americans we lost fighting in Vietnam.
The regime in Caracas was literally killing Americans using illegal drugs. The fact that every year we lose tens of thousands of Americans to drug overdose was apparently of no concern to Congress when they refused to act, forcing President Trump to take the actions he did to save American lives.
Even Leftists Hated Maduro
The Maduro regime, which was spawned from Venezuelan dicatator Hugo Chavez’s regime when Chavez passed in 2013, was considered illegitimate even by leftists in the United Nations. Maduro’s regime had become so corrupt that it lost the support of far-left NGOs that normally softball Communist regimes.
First, the actual Communist Party of Venezulea (PCV) separated from Maduro in 2023. The PCV was subsequently taken over by activist judges who used judicial action to dismiss the PCV’s leadership and install Maduro loyalists.
About the only thing that the right and left agreed upon in 2024 was that the 2024 Venezuelan elections were stolen by Maduro’s leftist regime. The far-left Carter Center, named for former President Jimmy Carter, called Venezuela’s 2024 Presidential Elections fraudulent. The Carter Center had previously validated elections under Hugo Chavez that were widely thought to be illegitimate. But on the 2024 election, they said “Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.”
The far-left United Nations also agreed. The UN Panel of Electoral Experts also agreed with the Carter Center that the elections were illegitimate. Surprisingly, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International both agreed that the 2024 Venezulean Elections were illegitimate, and that Maduro was using illegal state powers to silence the opposition.
Invading the United States
In 2023, Venezuela was the country of birth for 650,000 illegal aliens living in the United States. While this number is below other countries such as India, Guatemala and Honduras, it is the speed at which the illegal immigration ramped up. In 2007, the number was 55,000. By 2021, it was 195,000 before hitting the 650,000 figure two years later in 2023.
To put those numbers in perspective, between 2021 – 2023, about 4,375 Venezuelan illegals were arriving per week. When World War I ended in 1918, the US was shipping about 10,000 troops a week from the US to Europe. Venezuela was sending half the number of illegals to the US every week as the US was shipping troops to Europe near the end of World War I.
A History of Constitutional Government
Like many South American countries, Venezuela has a history with both dictators and democracy. In 1958, Venezulean Dicator Marcos Perez Jimenez was overthrown and a democratic form of government was formed. This lasted until 1999 when Hugo Chavez, a man who had attempted two coups in 1992, was elected President.
The early years of Hugo Chavez’s government went well not due to any policy or strength of Chavez himself, but because oil prices skyrockted in the early 2000s. Starting at around $20/barrel in 2000, oil would rise to $147 a barrel in the middle of 2008. Venezuela is the most oil-rich nation in the world, with almost 300 billion barrels of proven reserves.
When President Trump announced that “We are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” I believe every veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan immediately felt some trepidation. Having served in both conflicts, I can still recall when the Bush and Obama administrations were hammering home that we were “spreading democracy” to 8th century Islamic tribesmen.
However, the Venezuelans are not 8th century Islamic tribesmen. Just a generation ago, they had a functioning democracy that is still well within living memory in Venezuela today. And unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, Venezuela was a Spanish colony that won its independence in 1830. Unlike the Iraqis or Afghans, they have a long history with Western-style governance, and any such efforts need only return Venezuela to the democratic governance that prevailed for 40 years from 1958 – 1999.
The Oil Factor
Unlike Presidents Bush and Obama, President Trump is not toppling foreign dictators to “spread democracy” or go on some kind of neoliberal crusade. Far from it, the Trump administration is playing the game of geopolitics to give the United States an advantage and hamstring our polticial opponents.
I know what some of you are thinking: “How is invading Venezuela American First! I voted for no more foreign wars!”
I suppose if tens of thousands of Americans dying from overdoses on drugs shipped through Venezuela isn’t enough justification, there is a larger picture to be seen. Oil is the most important commodity in the world today. Everything in our modern lives depends on it, from the plastic in your cell phone to modern medical devices that save lives. Or the fact that you can get out-of-season fruit anywhere in the US at any time of the year.
Venezuela has the most proven reserves of any nation in the world at 300 billion barrels, almost 10x the United States proven reserves of 35 billion barrels. Now that the United States is in control of these 300 billion barrels, we have several options.
First, nobody wants to see a war between the US and China or Russia. Russia is an oil rich nation (Hitler backstabbed Stalin in 1941 mostly for the Caucuses oil), with oil being 20% of its GDP and almost a third of its state revenue. The United States can bankrupt the Russian economy and force Putin to end his illegal invasion of Ukraine simply by letting the taps flow from Venezuela.
Second, China is an oil-poor nation. Although they have reserves of 25 billion barrels, their population of over 1.4 billion has an oil requirement of 16 million barrels per day. Their daily production is around 4 -5 million barrels, forcing them to import over 70% of their oil. In the event of a war with China, the US Navy would immediately cut off all of China’s oil imports, causing massive disruptions to their civilian econonmy and military operations.
With the US in control of Venezuelan oil, and with the regime in Tehran likely to fall soon, the US will be in a position to control of 10% – 13% of China’s imported oil (which is mostly laundered through Malaysia, as both Venezuela and Iran are heavily sanctioned). This acts as a massive deterrent against China: try to invade Taiwan, and we cut off your oil supply.
Little more is “America First” than increasing American oil supply while putting our geopolitical adversaries at a disadvantage. In addition to all the foreign policy benefits, a drop in the price of oil to between $30-$50/barrel would also cause the price of consumer goods in the US (ranging from groceries to laptops) go down as well, since the fuel costs for shipping will go down.
The Donroe Doctrine
In 1823, President James Monroe and Secretary of State John Quincy Adams created the Monroe Doctrine. It was a long document, but could be summarized as being a policy statement that the US would not allow foreign powers to colonize the southern part of the Western Hemisphere. At the time, the United States was far from the post-1945 superpower it is today, and could do little as European powers continued colonization efforts that had begun in the 16th century.
However, all of this started to change around the American Civil War. Napoleon III of France attempted to set up a puppet regime in Mexico using a Hapsburg prince who would become Emperor Maximillian I of Mexico. But by 1864, the US was no longer a relatively poor nation: it was just ending the American Civil War, and the United States had a massive army it could easily redirect from the Confederacy against French imperial ambitions south of the border. By 1866, the Napoleon III withdrew French troops from Mexico, and by 1867 Emperor Maxmillian I was executed by Benito Juarez.
In 2026, China was attempting to set up something similar in Venezuela. They were a huge part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and the day Maduro was arrested he had just met with Chinese officials. Cuban intelligence agents were acting as his Praetorian Guard, and Russia had been supplying Venezuela with miltiary equipment since the Chavez dictatorship. Iran was providing Maduro with petroleum processing chemicals and Iranian Mohajer-series drones were being assembled in Venezuela.
Simply put, the the three biggest geopolitical opponents of the United States were setting up operations right in America’s backyard. It would be like if MS-13 was setting up operations in the house across the street and started selling your kids drugs. No policymaker that claims to be America First could plausibly allow this to happen without taking action.
By arresting Maduro on drug and arms trafficking charges, President Trump has removed a vital beachead that Iran, Russia and China was using to strategically encircle the United States. He has thus enforced the Monroe Doctrine, created by a Founding Father (James Monroe) and the son of a Founding Father (John Quincy Adams). The “Trump Corallary” or “Donroe Doctrine” means the United States will not hesitate to protect its interests in its own back yard.
