The MeToo’ing and subsequent resignation of Congressman Eric Swalwell has eliminated one of the California gubernatorial race’s Democratic frontrunners, but the party has still failed to rally around a single candidate.
Due to the open primary system the state uses, this has raised the prospect of a Republican vs. Republican election, should GOP candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco finish in the top two. Realistically, this is the only way the Republican Party can currently win in the state, due to the Democrats’ lopsided electoral advantage.
Current polls show Hilton, who received President Donald J. Trump’s endorsement, in first place, with Bianco tied with Democrat Tom Steyer for second place, so this scenario is not outside the realm of possibility if Democrats do not consolidate their votes and candidates do not drop out. California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks previously encouraged supposedly non-viable candidates to drop out, but so far they have refused to abort their campaigns.
On the Republican side, the California GOP split on Hilton and Bianco despite Trump’s endorsement of the former, failing to endorse one of them specifically. Hilton was confident that he would finish in the top two and face a Democrat in November, saying, “I don’t know who the Democrat will be, but it’s certainly going to be a Democrat.” It’s true that this is a likely outcome, though also a depressing one, since it almost certainly guarantees a Democratic victory.
California saw Republican momentum during the attempted 2021 recall of Governor Gavin Newsom, when it looked as though backlash regarding the state’s strict COVID shutdowns would be enough to oust him. Unfortunately, the backlash was not widespread enough, and the Republican side lacked strong candidates, so Newsom beat the recall effort comfortably. The current Democratic vote-splitting presents a similar unique scenario that presents an opening for Republicans, but could end in similarly predictable fashion.
Ideally, in the future California will have a stronger Republican Party and shifted voter priorities that present a real opportunity for victory, beyond fluke scenarios. Still, however likely, it would certainly be entertaining if the state locked itself in a Republican-only gubernatorial race via a primary system designed for the opposite.
