California’s already crowded gubernatorial race has taken a dramatic turn following the sudden exit of Eric Swalwell, whose campaign ended amid serious allegations he has denied. His departure has reshaped the field and put the two Republican candidates in the lead, according to a new poll from Emerson College Polling.
The survey, conducted in mid-April, shows two Republican candidates—the Trump-endorsed Fox News commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco—leading the overall field, with support levels of 16.6% and 14.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates are more divided, with Tom Steyer, Xavier Becerra, and Katie Porter splitting significant portions of the vote.
Swalwell’s withdrawal followed multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, including a claim involving a 2018 incident. He has denied wrongdoing. His exit has prompted a redistribution of support, particularly among Democratic voters, many of whom are now divided across several candidates.
“Many Californians first realized there was a governor’s race when Eric Swalwell dropped out of it, so we are likely to see a lot of movement as Californians really for the first time focus their attention fully on this race,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “We may see a lot of movement around Democrats because they are almost all in the same ideological space.”
The structure of California’s primary system—where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party—adds another layer of complexity. With Democrats spread across multiple candidates with party division and infighting at an all-time high and Republicans more consolidated, it could be two Republican candidates who emerge on the November ballot—in what would be a monumental catastrophe for Democrats.
The upcoming primary, scheduled for June 2, will determine which two candidates advance to the general election. As campaigning intensifies, the race is expected to draw increased national attention, particularly given the unexpected early polling dynamics and the potential implications for a major political shift in one of the country’s most politically influential states.
