Carlos Pineda, the independent businessman who many believe was cheated out of the Guatemalan presidency in 2023, may be running again and his prospects seem stronger than ever this time. The businessman from Zacapa led all Guatemalan presidential polls in 2023 before the courts conspired to take him off the ballot. The establishment has been after him for over three years, but his enduring resilience in the face of obstacles has caused his popularly to rise.
Pineda, 54, was born in Zacapa and grew up between the east and the port of Santo Tomás de Castilla. His father, Carlos René Pineda Rossell, served in the military and in the presidential guard under President Carlos Arana Osorio. His father built Transportes Pineda Rossell, which hauled bananas for United Fruit, then Chiquita and Del Monte. It started with one truck in 1973. The family business empire grew into palm, cattle, gas stations, port work, and routes into Mexico.
Pineda wears a hard hat while supervising one of his many Guatemalan factories.
Pineda was focused on business, mostly staying out of political affairs, until he became a nationally-renowned figure in 2020. Hurricanes Eta and Iota flooded Izabal and Alta Verapaz. Pineda used his helicopter to pull families off roofs and save dozens of lives. The videos of his selfless heroism spread. A rich man stepping up where the government had failed effectively demonstrated Pineda as a leader who could defeat the entrenched corruption that has plagued Guatemala.
In 2023, the Citizen Prosperity party made Pineda its presidential candidate. By April he was rising in the polls. By May he was first, or close to first. He paid for his own campaign. He fiercely attacked the political class. He dominated on TikTok. As a result, the Guatemalan establishment struck back. Pineda was booted from the ballot just a month before election day. Pineda told the AP the Court had ended the country’s democracy. He says the real drug traffickers are in power and that the attacks were meant to cut his support. The voters never got to decide.
Pineda’s visa situation made the situation worse. Pineda currently does not have a U.S. visa, which he adamantly claims was due to complications from overstaying in the U.S. decades ago. As a result, his visa situation has been used as a weapon by his enemies in an attempt to harm his credibility and fuel a whisper campaign painting Pineda as a narco-trafficker despite no evidence showing that to be the case.
As Pineda was being removed from the ballot, a letter emerged claiming that the United States would not grant Pineda a visa because it had “reasonable grounds to believe” he had been involved in drug trafficking. The Mexican paper Excélsior published the letter. It was later revealed that the letter had a Gemini watermark and was an obvious AI forgery, but the damage had already been done.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken could have ended the controversy by granting Pineda's his visa but instead assisted the electoral interference scheme. The Biden-era State Department turned up the bureaucratic resistance against Pineda to protect their client, President Bernardo Arévalo, a liberal internationalist who kowtows to woke objectives such as those promoted by USAID in the pre-Trump era. This coordinated operation was orchestrated to devastate Pineda's reputation and bury his political hopes for good.
Carlos Pineda’s new party SERVIR hopes to remedy his past problems with political entities.
The controversies that might have ended the career of a leader with less resolve only emboldened Pineda to double down. His new political party, SERVIR, was founded in November 2023 with Pineda now serving as secretary general. A 2026 poll puts him second out of potential presidential contenders, at about 23 percent. He hosts a podcast, Guatemala Tiene Solución, where he talks about prices, crime, and U.S. politics. The same social media that made him in 2023 continues to be the lifeblood of his movement. Like President Trump, Pineda is a difficult man to break.
The comparisons are obvious. Both men are rich outsiders. Both men transcend the typical party process. Both speak in the plain language of the people. Both men said their independent wealth means they can never be bought. Both emerged into the public eye in unforgettable iconic scenes: Trump on an escalator, Pineda in a helicopter over floodwater. Both amassed huge followings online instead of through party machines. Both claim the political class is corrupt and they are the antidote to that corruption.
Like President Trump, Pineda has learned who his allies are and who the traitors were—and adjusted accordingly. He has built SERVIR with family and close allies specifically not to depend on outside operators. La Hora reported that relatives fill key posts, including his wife and his son Charlie. Pineda has said he wanted a small circle “to avoid betrayals.” The buck stops with Pineda. That makes another 2023-style ambush more difficult. It also makes SERVIR essentially a family business, and blood is thicker than water.
A copy of the official law enforcement letter exonerating Pineda of all wrongdoing.
Additionally Pineda has gained an important feather in his cap against the persistent baseless allegations he is a drug criminal. The National Civil Police, under the Ministry of the Interior, has officially certified that he has no criminal record. Pineda has stated emphatically that he has never used drugs and Guatemala has no case against him. The police certificate demonstrates Pineda’s truthfulness, and there is hope he can get his visa reinstated before next year’s election.
MAGA-aligned networks have heard his story and found striking similarities to how the deep state treated President Trump when he challenged the political establishment. There have been murmurs in Washington D.C. that Republican Congressmen are joining the fight to get Pineda’s visa restored, a move that would likely immediately make him the frontrunner in the presidential race should he choose to run.
The 2027 field will be crowded. Pineda is the only likely candidate who has demonstrated consistent support in the polls, commanded a large online audience, built the independent wealth needed to flout the establishment and shown tremendous resilience that resonates with the people. In a crowded field, an unbreakable candidate like Pineda could emerge as the leader who firmly aligns Guatemala with the Donroe Doctrine and unseats the globalist incumbent Arévalo.
