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A new poll released by J.L. Partners on August 19, 2026, shows Republican Anthony Constantino holding a clear lead over Democrat Blake Gendebien in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik in the Republican-leaning 21st Congressional District.

The survey surveyed 500 likely voters from August 15-17 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%. J.L. Partners, the firm behind the numbers, was among the more accurate pollsters in the 2024 presidential cycle, correctly projecting President Donald J. Trump’s popular-vote and Electoral College wins. 

According to a New York Post exclusive by Carl Campanile, Constantino leads 50% to 40%, with 10% of voters still unsure. 

When undecided voters were pressed on their leanings, Constantino’s advantage grew to 13 points (53% to 40%).

These findings push back against a SurveyUSA poll for WNYT NewsChannel 13 released about a week earlier that had shown Gendebien ahead 43% to 39%, with an independent candidate at 5% and 13% undecided.

NY-21 is a vast, predominantly rural district in upstate New York, covering much of the North Country as well as parts of the Capital Region and Mohawk Valley. 

The district has long been a Republican stronghold.

President Trump carried the district by roughly 20 points in 2024, and Stefanik, a six-term incumbent and Trump ally, won her last reelection by a wide margin before announcing she would not seek another term.

Constantino, the CEO of Sticker Mule and a self-financed candidate who has poured millions of his own money into this race, emerged from a heated Republican primary in June, where he defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen by nearly 19 points with strong backing from President Trump, who endorsed him earlier this year.

Gendebien, a dairy farmer from St. Lawrence County, won the Democratic primary decisively over restaurateur Stuart Amoriell. 

Democrats have added the race to their Districts in Play list, viewing the open seat as a potential opportunity despite the district’s conservative lean.

Favorability numbers in the new poll also favor the Republican side indirectly through Stefanik’s lingering popularity. 

More than half of likely voters (53%) viewed the outgoing congresswoman favorably, including 40% who held a very favorable opinion. Hochul, the current New York governor, remains deeply unpopular in the district, with 67% disapproving of her job performance.

Constantino has dismissed unfavorable polling as inaccurate or politically motivated. With the race now in its final stretch, he continues campaigning while holding both a lead and the district’s structural advantage. Voters will decide on November 3.